Trakya Bölgesi’nde İklim Değişikliğinin Buğday Verimine Etkisinin AquaCrop ve WOFOST Modeller ile Tahmin Edilmesi

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dc.authorscopusid7801416172
dc.authorscopusid57212873316
dc.authorscopusid57194271264
dc.contributor.authorKonukçu, Fatih
dc.contributor.authorDeveci, H.
dc.contributor.authorAltürk, Bahadır
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-11T14:02:45Z
dc.date.available2022-05-11T14:02:45Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentMeslek Yüksekokulları, Teknik Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu, İnşaat Bölümü
dc.departmentFakülteler, Ziraat Fakültesi, Biyosistem Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.departmentMeslek Yüksekokulları, Teknik Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu, Malzeme ve Malzeme İşleme Teknolojileri Bölümü
dc.description.abstractSince climate change will adversely affect the agricultural sector as well as many other sectors, the effects of climate change on agricultural production should be estimated and necessary measures should be taken. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of climate change on wheat yield in the short (2020-2030), medium (2046-2055) and long (2076-2085) term periods in the Thrace Region using AquaCrop and WOFOST models. RegCM3 Regional Climate Model, reference and A2 scenario outputs were used to predict climate change. In the 1970- 1990 period, the measured temperature and precipitation data measured in the research area were compared with the model reference data and changes were estimated in the short, medium and long term periods. Wheat yields obtained from farmer fields in three different locations (Akincilar, Sofular, Çövenli) in Çorlu Pinarbasi sub-basin in 2016-2017 growing period were compared with the model prediction in order to do the calibration and yields were forecasted in the future periods. As a result, in the short term, an average 0.27°C decrease in temperature were forecasted whereas 1,43 °C and 3,05 °C increase were estimated for medium and long terms, respectively when compared to model reference years. In total rainfall, 87 mm (13%) increase, 91 mm (14%) and 78 mm (12%) decreases were simulated for the short, medium and long-terms. AquaCrop Model predicted yield increases up to 50% in Akincilar and Çövenli and yield decreases of 6% - 34% in Sofular whereas WOFOST Model predicted increases of 40% in Akincilar and 12% in Sofular and decrease up to 2 - 7% in Çövenli. © 2020 Namik Kemal University - Agricultural Faculty. All rights reserved.
dc.identifier.doi10.33462/jotaf.593883
dc.identifier.endpage96
dc.identifier.issn1302-7050
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85080862612
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.startpage77
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.593883
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11776/4465
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000607582400007
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorKonukcu, F.
dc.institutionauthorDeveci, H.
dc.institutionauthorAltürk, Bahadır
dc.language.isotr
dc.publisherNamik Kemal University - Agricultural Faculty
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectCorlu Pinarbasi Basin
dc.subjectRegCM3 Regional Climate Model
dc.subjectWheat
dc.subjectYield Prediction
dc.titleTrakya Bölgesi’nde İklim Değişikliğinin Buğday Verimine Etkisinin AquaCrop ve WOFOST Modeller ile Tahmin Edilmesi
dc.title.alternativeModelling of the effect of climate change on wheat yield in thrace region with AquaCrop and WOFOST models
dc.typeArticle

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