Modeling land use/land cover change and mapping morphological fragmentation of agricultural lands in Thrace Region/Turkey

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dc.authorid0000-0003-1282-6558
dc.authorscopusid57194271264
dc.authorscopusid7801416172
dc.contributor.authorAltürk, Bahadır
dc.contributor.authorKonukçu, Fatih
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-11T14:15:40Z
dc.date.available2022-05-11T14:15:40Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentFakülteler, Ziraat Fakültesi, Biyosistem Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.departmentMeslek Yüksekokulları, Teknik Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu, Malzeme ve Malzeme İşleme Teknolojileri Bölümü
dc.description.abstractHuman factors such as development of new roads and urban and industrial areas have caused reduction and fragmentation of agricultural lands in Thrace Region as in many parts of the world over the past few decades. To minimize the negative impact of these anthropogenic activities, it is necessary to forecast spatiotemporal land use/land cover change and its effect on agricultural land fragmentation for future. In this study, first, land use/land cover change was simulated with CLUE-S model under three scenarios for 2050. Then, morphological fragmentation and disorder degree of agricultural lands were analyzed using land use/land cover change maps (1990 and 2014), simulation results (2050) and 1/25,000 Tekirdag Provincial Environmental Plan (2023). Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis and entropy methods were used to determine the spatiotemporal fragmentation degree in agricultural lands. Results of scenarios 1 and 2 demonstrate that urban areas will increase due to population growth, and increasing urban and industrial land sprawl will accelerate the decline and fragmentation of agricultural lands until 2050. However, loss and fragmentation of core agricultural lands for scenario 3 where the protection rules are applied will be less than scenarios 1 and 2. To mitigate further fragmentation in agricultural lands in the future, particularly artificial spatial development areas should be constructed on the zones with currently high entropy and fragmented small core pieces. This study, as a tool for performance review in regional planning, recommends a set of measures to control agricultural land fragmentation, such as more effective protection of remaining unfragmented areas.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10668-019-00485-3
dc.identifier.endpage6404
dc.identifier.issn1387-585X
dc.identifier.issn1573-2975
dc.identifier.issue7en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85074327285
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage6379
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00485-3
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11776/6016
dc.identifier.volume22
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000580631900002
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorAltürk, Bahadır
dc.institutionauthorKonukçu, Fatih
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironment Development and Sustainability
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectLand use/land cover change modeling
dc.subjectUrbanization
dc.subjectMorphological spatial pattern analysis
dc.subjectEntropy
dc.subjectPattern
dc.titleModeling land use/land cover change and mapping morphological fragmentation of agricultural lands in Thrace Region/Turkey
dc.typeArticle

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