Analysing of Tuberculosis in Turkey through SIR, SEIR and BSEIR Mathematical Models

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Tarih

2021

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Dergi ISSN

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Yayıncı

Taylor and Francis Ltd.

Erişim Hakkı

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Özet

Since mathematical models play a key role in investigating the dynamics of infectious diseases, many mathematical models for these diseases are developed. In this paper, it is aimed to determine the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Turkey, how much it will affect the future and the impact of vaccine therapy on the disease. For this purpose, three mathematical models (SIR, SEIR and BSEIR) in the literature are considered for the case of Turkey. The model parameters are obtained with TB reported data from 2005 to 2015 by using the least square method. The obtained results revealed that the basic reproduction ratio for all three models is less than 1. Moreover, the stability analysis of the models and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are presented and discussed. Finally, the accuracy of results for all three models is compared and the effect of the vaccination rate is discussed. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Açıklama

Anahtar Kelimeler

basic reproduction number, Epidemic model, infectious disease, tuberculosis, vaccination, Cell proliferation, Disease control, Diseases, Least squares approximations, Vaccines, Basic reproduction ratios, Infectious disease, Least square methods, Model parameters, Stability analysis, Three models, Sensitivity analysis

Kaynak

Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems

WoS Q Değeri

Q3

Scopus Q Değeri

Q3

Cilt

27

Sayı

1

Künye