Empirical Modelling of Global Solar Radiation in Hatay (Turkey) Province
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2021
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
There are many models used in global solar radiation prediction. However, these prediction models vary accordingto the climate and geographic characteristics of the region involved. When the prediction model determined for aregion is used in a different region, the prediction model may not work. In order to gain absolute and stable resultsfrom these models, the studies should be either custom-made or tested.In this study, 7 different models were examined, comparison charts were created and statistical interpretationswere made in order to determine the monthly average global solar radiation coming to the horizontal plane takinginto account the climatic characteristics of Hatay province, located in the eastern 39.92º latitude and northernlongitude 36.16º, covering an area of 5403 km, and has a humid climate with a value of 41.3, based on DeMartonne-Gottmann’s drought index and 50.6 based on Erinç's rainfall efficiency index.Under the scope of this study, the most ideal global solar radiation prediction model was selected by making astatistical evaluation according to the parameters of determination coefficient (R²), mean percentage error (MPE),mean deviation error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE).A general assessment of the graphics and statistical parameters of the predictions obtained by using the modelsand the measured data has indicated Model 4 as the most successful model by an RMSE value of 0.17306, and theleast successful model was Model 3 by an RMSE value of 2.11851.When the models are interpreted according to the determination coefficient, it has been observed that other modelsare generally successful. However, this situation does not coincide with the comparison charts of the predicted andmeasured data. For this reason, it was seen that the determination coefficient was not sufficient in the statisticalevaluation of the prediction models. In the interpretation of the models, it was observed that the interpretation ofroot mean square error, mean percentage error and mean deviation error values together gave more accurate results.In conclusion, it has been suggested that Model 4 should be preferred for the global solar radiation forecast ofHatay province.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Hatay, modelling, Solar energy, global solar radiation, solar radiation
Kaynak
Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
18
Sayı
3
