İHRACATIN EKONOMİK VE POLİTİK BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN VAR ANALİZİ UYGULAMASI
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2016-12
Yazarlar
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Yayıncı
Namık Kemal Üniversitesi,İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Küreselleşmeyle birlikte dünya ekonomisinin de küresel hale gelmesi, ülkeleri ve firmaları, ekonomilerini geliştirmek ve uluslararası rekabet avantajı sağlamak için ihracata daha çok yönelttiğinden ihracat, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için önem taşımaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisi için de ihracat, ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmayı hızlandırarak dünya ekonomisinde yer edinmek açısından önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu nedenle çalışmada Türkiye için ihracat, reel efektif döviz kuru, yurt dışı gelir ve politik istikrar arasındaki ilişki, 1984-2012 dönemi için vektör otoregresif model (VAR) analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda ise ihracat serisine 1 standart sapmalık bir şok verildiğinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir tepki verdiği ve 10. periyotta denge noktasına yaklaştığı, politik istikrar serisine verilecek 1 standart sapmalık şok durumunda ihracat serisinin pozitif ve anlamlı bir tepki verdiği ve 10. periyotta ise ihracat ve politik istikrar değişkenlerinin birlikte hareket etme eğiliminde olduğu, yurt dışı gelir değişkenine 1 standart sapmalık şok verildiğinde ihracat serisinin pozitif ve anlamlı bir tepki verdiği, aynı şekilde reel efektif döviz kuruna bir standart sapmalık bir şok verildiğinde ihracat serisinin pozitif ve anlamlı bir tepki verdiği bulgularına ulaşılmıştır.
When the world economy's and market's becoming global with the globalization have provided to orient to international trade more than before to develop their economies and provide a competitive advantage, export has had an importance for both developed and developing economies. Exports for Turkey's economy have an important significance to take place in the world economy by accelareting economic growth and development. Therefore, in the study, the relationship between real effective exchange rates, foreign income, political stability and exports for Turkey were analyzed by vector autoregressive model (VAR) for the period of 1984-2012. Finally; when a shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the export series it gave a positive and meaningful response and approaches to the equilibrium point in the 10th period, when a shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the political stability the export series gave a positive and meaningful response and in the period of 10 the variables of exports and political stability tended to move together, when the shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the variable of foreign income the export series gave a positive and meaningful response, in the same way when the shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the variable of real effective exchange rates the export series gave a positive and meaningful response were founded in the analysis.
When the world economy's and market's becoming global with the globalization have provided to orient to international trade more than before to develop their economies and provide a competitive advantage, export has had an importance for both developed and developing economies. Exports for Turkey's economy have an important significance to take place in the world economy by accelareting economic growth and development. Therefore, in the study, the relationship between real effective exchange rates, foreign income, political stability and exports for Turkey were analyzed by vector autoregressive model (VAR) for the period of 1984-2012. Finally; when a shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the export series it gave a positive and meaningful response and approaches to the equilibrium point in the 10th period, when a shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the political stability the export series gave a positive and meaningful response and in the period of 10 the variables of exports and political stability tended to move together, when the shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the variable of foreign income the export series gave a positive and meaningful response, in the same way when the shock of 1 standard deviation was given to the variable of real effective exchange rates the export series gave a positive and meaningful response were founded in the analysis.
Açıklama
International Congress of Management Economy And Policy, 26-27 Kasım 2016, İstanbul
Anahtar Kelimeler
İhracat, ihracatın belirleyicileri, politik istikrar ve ihracat, VAR Analizi, Export, the determinants of export, political stability and export, VAR Analysis
Kaynak
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