Forecasting fully vaccinated people against COVID-19 and examining future vaccination rate for herd immunity in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World

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dc.authorscopusid56539994200
dc.contributor.authorCihan, Pınar
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-11T14:03:00Z
dc.date.available2022-05-11T14:03:00Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentFakülteler, Çorlu Mühendislik Fakültesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.description.abstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has spread rapidly all over the world and it is known that the most effective way to eliminate the disease is vaccination. Although the traditional vaccine development process is quite long, more than ten COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use in about a year. The COVID-19 vaccines that have been administered are highly effective enough, but achieving herd immunity is required to end the pandemic. The motivation of this study is to contribute to review the countries’ vaccine policies and adjusting the manufacturing plans of the vaccine companies. In this study, the total number of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was forecasted in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which is a new approach in vaccination studies. Additionally, for herd immunity, the percentage of fully vaccinated people in these regions at the beginning of 2021 summer was determined. ARIMA results show that in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World will reach 139 million, 109 million, 127 million, 8 million, 38 million, and 441 million people will be fully vaccinated on 1 June 2021, respectively. According to these results, 41.8% of the US, 2.3% of Asia, 17% of Europe, 0.6% of Africa, 8.8% of South America, and 5.6% of the World population will be fully vaccinated people against the COVID-19. Results show that countries are far from the herd immunity threshold level desired to reach for safely slow or stop the COVID-19 epidemic. © 2021
dc.description.sponsorshipNo funding to declare.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107708
dc.identifier.issn1568-4946
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85110439312
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107708
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11776/4571
dc.identifier.volume111
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000724665600019
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorCihan, Pınar
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofApplied Soft Computing
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectForecasting
dc.subjectHerd immunity
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjectVaccine
dc.subjectAutoregressive moving average model
dc.subjectAutoregressive integrated moving average models
dc.subjectHerd immunities
dc.subjectManufacturing plans
dc.subjectNew approaches
dc.subjectNumber of peoples
dc.subjectThreshold levels
dc.subjectVaccine development
dc.subjectWorld population
dc.subjectVaccines
dc.titleForecasting fully vaccinated people against COVID-19 and examining future vaccination rate for herd immunity in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World
dc.typeArticle

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