ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON OUTPUT GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY BASED ON THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE (TAR) MODEL

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dc.authoridESEN, OMER/0000-0002-4762-9282
dc.contributor.authorEsen, Omer
dc.contributor.authorAkin, Arzu
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-29T17:59:05Z
dc.date.available2024-10-29T17:59:05Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentTekirdağ Namık Kemal Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis paper empirically examines whether the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on output growth vary depending on the level-high or low- of the inflation environment in Turkey. This study adopts the recently developed threshold autoregressive (TAR) model, which can predict the threshold level endogenously. The empirical results indicate that the inflation level below the 12.15% threshold has a statistically significant and detractive effect on output, but inflation uncertainty has no effect. On the other hand, the negative effect of inflation above the threshold level on output continues, although it decreases, and the effect of inflation uncertainty on output turns from meaningless to strongly negative. That is, the findings point out that industrial production is more affected by the inflation level in a relatively low-inflation environment and by inflation volatility in a high one.
dc.identifier.doi10.26830/symmetry_2023_1_027
dc.identifier.endpage44
dc.identifier.issn0865-4824
dc.identifier.issn2226-1877
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85173871056
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage27
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26830/symmetry_2023_1_027
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11776/14620
dc.identifier.volume34
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001068713300003
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSymmetrion
dc.relation.ispartofSymmetry-Culture and Science
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectInflation
dc.subjectInflation uncertainty
dc.subjectEconomic growth
dc.subjectARCH/GARCH
dc.subjectThreshold autoregressive (TAR) model
dc.titleASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON OUTPUT GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY BASED ON THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE (TAR) MODEL
dc.typeArticle

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