Impact of the COVID-19 lockdowns on electricity and natural gas consumption in the different industrial zones and forecasting consumption amounts: Turkey case study

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dc.authorscopusid56539994200
dc.contributor.authorCihan, Pınar
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-11T14:03:01Z
dc.date.available2022-05-11T14:03:01Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentFakülteler, Çorlu Mühendislik Fakültesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.description.abstractThe COVID-19 lockdowns have adversely affected the national economies and caused fluctuations in the energy industry. This study examined how the lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic affected the amount of electricity and natural gas consumption in four organized industrial zones in the Turkey. A significant decrease was observed in electricity and natural gas consumption amounts in April and May when lockdowns were also applied in four industrial zones. In April, electricity consumption decreased between 72 and 43%, and natural gas consumption decreased between 77 and 57%. In May, electricity consumption decreased between 60 and 32%, and natural gas consumption decreased between 69 and 45%. These decreases in industrial zones show that the economy has been significantly affected. Furthermore, in this study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters models were developed to predict electricity and natural gas consumption of an industrial zone. ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,1,0)7 and ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)7 models were chosen as the best model for the electricity and natural gas consumption data respectively with a minimum MAPEElectricity was 1.37%, RMSEElectricity was 87.2, R2Electricity was 0.99, MAPEGas was 5.42% and RMSEGas was 50.9, R2Gas was 0.92. Electricity and natural gas consumption was forecasted for the next ten days (10–19 March 2021) according to ARIMA models with 80% and 95% confidence intervals. In addition, in this study, the impact of low energy usage in the industrial zone due to the COVID-19 lockdowns on model prediction performance was also examined. The obtained results showed that the COVID-19 lockdowns were reduced the ARIMA model prediction accuracy. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
dc.description.sponsorshipNo funding to declare.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijepes.2021.107369
dc.identifier.issn0142-0615
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85110243415
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2021.107369
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11776/4573
dc.identifier.volume134
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000705246400010
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorCihan, Pınar
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectElectricity
dc.subjectHolt-Winters
dc.subjectNatural gas
dc.subjectElectric power utilization
dc.subjectForecasting
dc.subjectGases
dc.subjectAuto regressive integrated moving average models
dc.subjectAuto-regressive integrated moving average
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectElectricity-consumption
dc.subjectForecasting consumption
dc.subjectHolt-Winters
dc.subjectIndustrial forecasting
dc.subjectIndustrial zones
dc.subjectModeling predictions
dc.subjectNatural gas consumption
dc.subjectNatural gas
dc.titleImpact of the COVID-19 lockdowns on electricity and natural gas consumption in the different industrial zones and forecasting consumption amounts: Turkey case study
dc.typeArticle

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