TÜRKİYE’DE REEL DÖVİZ KURU İLE DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: 2000-2015 DÖNEMİ İÇİN ARDL MODELİ İLE AMPRİK BİR ANALİZ
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2016-12
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Namık Kemal Üniversitesi,İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bir ülkede reel döviz kurlarındaki değişmeler ülkenin dış ticaretini etkilerken, dış ticaretin temel bileşenleri olan ithalat ve ihracattaki değişmeler de döviz kurunu etkilemektedir. Reel döviz kuru yükseldiğinde ithal malları nispeten pahalılaşıp ihraç malları ucuzlayacağından dış ticaret dengesine olumlu yansıması beklenir. Aksi durumda ülke dış ticaret açığı ile karşı karşıya kalır. Dış ticaret açığı gelişmekte olan ülkelerin sıklıkla karşılaştıkları bir sorundur. Bu sorunun giderilmesinde izlenen döviz kuru politikası önemli olmaktadır. Reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki iktisatçılar tarafından değişik araştırmalara konu edilmiştir. Hazırlanan bu çalışmada Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişkisi araştırılmaktadır. İlişkinin büyüklüğünün tespiti için 2000:1-2015:12 dönemine ait aylık veriler ışığında ARDL testi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu görülmüştür. Eşbütünleşmenin olması en az bir nedensellik ilişkisini işaret ettiğinden Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik testi yapılmış ve reel döviz kurundan dış ticaret dengesine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir.
While the variations in the real exchange rates of a country impacts that country's foreign trade, any variations in the import and export, as fundamental components of foreign trade, also influence the exchange rate. Because import goods will get relatively more expensive and export goods will get relatively cheap when the real exchange rate rises, it is expected to have a positive reflection on foreign trade balance. Otherwise the country would experience a foreign trade deficit. Foreign trade deficit is a problem that developing countries frequently face. The exchange rate policy followed becomes prominent in the elimination of such problem. The relationship between the real exchange rate and foreign trade balance has been made the subject for various studies by economists. In this study, the relationship between Turkey's real exchange rate and its foreign trade balance was investigated. For the determination of the magnitude of the relationship, ARDL testing was conducted in the light of monthly data belonging to the period of 2000:1-2015:12. According to the analysis results, it was observed that there is cointegration relationship between real exchange rate and foreign trade balance. For the presence of cointegration points out to at least one causality relationship, Toda-Yamamoto causality testing was conducted and a unilateral causality was defined from real exchange rate towards foreign trade balance.
While the variations in the real exchange rates of a country impacts that country's foreign trade, any variations in the import and export, as fundamental components of foreign trade, also influence the exchange rate. Because import goods will get relatively more expensive and export goods will get relatively cheap when the real exchange rate rises, it is expected to have a positive reflection on foreign trade balance. Otherwise the country would experience a foreign trade deficit. Foreign trade deficit is a problem that developing countries frequently face. The exchange rate policy followed becomes prominent in the elimination of such problem. The relationship between the real exchange rate and foreign trade balance has been made the subject for various studies by economists. In this study, the relationship between Turkey's real exchange rate and its foreign trade balance was investigated. For the determination of the magnitude of the relationship, ARDL testing was conducted in the light of monthly data belonging to the period of 2000:1-2015:12. According to the analysis results, it was observed that there is cointegration relationship between real exchange rate and foreign trade balance. For the presence of cointegration points out to at least one causality relationship, Toda-Yamamoto causality testing was conducted and a unilateral causality was defined from real exchange rate towards foreign trade balance.
Açıklama
International Congress of Management Economy And Policy, 26-27 Kasım 2016, İstanbul
Anahtar Kelimeler
dış ticaret dengesi, reel döviz kuru, ARDL modeli, eşbütünleşme, foreign trade balance, real exchange rate, ARDL model, cointegration
Kaynak
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