ARIMA-Based Forecasting of Total COVID-19 Cases in the USA and India

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.contributor.authorCihan, Pınar
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-20T08:04:13Z
dc.date.available2023-04-20T08:04:13Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentFakülteler, Çorlu Mühendislik Fakültesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.description29th IEEE Conference on Signal Processing and Communications Applications (SIU) -- JUN 09-11, 2021 -- ELECTR NETWORK
dc.description.abstractThe coronavirus pandemic first started in Wuhan, China. The pandemic then spread rapidly all over the world. The virus wreaked unprecedented havoc worldwide. Researchers are using a variety of mathematical and machine learning-based prediction models to predict the future trend of the pandemic. In this study, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to forecast the expected daily confirmed COVID-19 cases for the next two weeks in the United States (USA) and India, which are most affected by the pandemic. ARIMA (0,2,1) and ARIMA (1,2,3) models with the lowest mean absolute percent error (MAPE) were selected as the best models for USA and India, respectively (MAPE(US)(A)=1.04%, MAPE(INDIA)=0.41%). According to these models, it is predicted that the total number of cases in the USA will be 27.201 million and 10.788 million in India on February 04, 2021. This study shows that ARIMA models are suitable for predicting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the future. Analysis results can shed light on understanding the trends of the pandemic in these countries.
dc.description.sponsorshipIEEE,IEEE Turkey Sect
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/SIU53274.2021.9477773
dc.identifier.isbn978-1-6654-3649-6
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85111463230
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1109/SIU53274.2021.9477773
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11776/11018
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000808100700017
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorCihan, Pınar
dc.language.isotr
dc.publisherIEEE
dc.relation.ispartof29th Ieee Conference On Signal Processing and Communications Applications (Siu 2021)
dc.relation.publicationcategoryKonferans Öğesi - Uluslararası - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectCovid-19
dc.subjectPandemic
dc.subjectForecasting
dc.subjectArima
dc.subjectUsa
dc.subjectIndia
dc.titleARIMA-Based Forecasting of Total COVID-19 Cases in the USA and India
dc.typeConference Object

Dosyalar

Orijinal paket
Listeleniyor 1 - 1 / 1
Küçük Resim Yok
İsim:
11018.pdf
Boyut:
396.02 KB
Biçim:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Açıklama:
Tam Metin / Full Text
İndir

Koleksiyon

WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Çorlu Mühendislik Fakültesi Koleksiyonu