Türkiye'de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2022
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
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Yayıncı
Tekirdağ Namık Kemal Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
2008 senesinde ABD'de meydana gelen ve bütün ekonomileri etkileyen küresel finansal kriz, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkisinin tekrar gündem konusu olmasını sağladı. Neticede finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki tartışma konusu haline gelerek oldukça çok yazar tarafından incelenmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen analizlerin sonuçları başka ülke örnekleri ve kullanılan farklı ekonometrik metotlar nedeniyle de farklılık göstermiştir. Bu sebepten dolayı söz konusu ilişkinin varlığı ve yönü hakkında fikir ayrılığına düşülmüştür ve bu durum kimi yazarlar tarafından "yumurta-tavuk problemi" şeklinde isimlendirilmesine neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini 1993 yılı 1. çeyrek ile 2022 yılı 2. çeyrek dönemi için Türkiye özelinde Granger nedensellik ve frekans alanında nedensellik sınaması ile analiz etmektir. Ekonomik büyüme değişkeni reel GSYİH'deki yıllık büyüme oranı şeklinde hesaplanırken, finansal gelişmişlik değişkeni, Aydın (2019) ve Kasım vd. (2021) tarafında yapılan çalışmalarda olduğu gibi, bankalar tarafından özel sektöre verilen kredilerin GSYİH'ye oranı şeklinde hesaplanmıştır. Söz konusu değişken için yıllık büyüme oranı hesaplanmış ve analizde bu şekilde kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada değişkenlerin durağanlık derecelerinin tespiti için ADF ve PP birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır ve analiz sonuçlarında, değişkenlerin fark durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmada ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki geleneksel Granger nedensellik testi ve Breitung ve Candelon (2006) tarafından geliştirilen frekans alanında nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışmadaki sonuçlara göre, Türkiye ekonomisinden ekonomik büyüme ile finansal gelişmişlik arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermekte ve finansal gelişmişlik ekonomik büyümeden etkilenirken, ekonomik büyüme finansal gelişmişlikten etkilenmemektedir.
The global financial crisis that took place in the USA in 2008, affecting all economies, made the relationship between financial development and economic growth back on the agenda. As a result, the relationship between financial development and economic growth has become a subject of discussion and has been highly examined by a lot of authors. The results of the analyzes were also different due to different examples of other countries and different econometric methods which were used. Due to this reason, there was a disagreement about the existence and direction of the relationship and this led to some authors calling it an "egg-chicken problem". The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relation between financial development and economic growth for Turkey in the first quarter of 1933 and the second quarter of 2022 by using the Granger causality and frequency domain causality test. While the economic growth variable is calculated as the annual growth rate in real GDP; the financial development variable is calculated as in the studies from Aydin (2019) and Kasim et al. (2021) as the ratio of loans given to the private sector by banks to GDP. The annual growth rate was calculated for the variable and used as such in the analysis. In the study, ADF and PP unit root tests were used to determine the degree of stationarity of the variables and it was seen that all the series were stationary in the first differences. In the study, the relationship between economic growth and financial development was investigated with the traditional Granger causality test and the frequency domain causality test which was developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006). According to the results of the study, it shows that there is a one-way causality relationship between economic growth and financial development in the Turkish economy, and while financial development is affected by economic growth, economic growth is not affected by financial development.
The global financial crisis that took place in the USA in 2008, affecting all economies, made the relationship between financial development and economic growth back on the agenda. As a result, the relationship between financial development and economic growth has become a subject of discussion and has been highly examined by a lot of authors. The results of the analyzes were also different due to different examples of other countries and different econometric methods which were used. Due to this reason, there was a disagreement about the existence and direction of the relationship and this led to some authors calling it an "egg-chicken problem". The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relation between financial development and economic growth for Turkey in the first quarter of 1933 and the second quarter of 2022 by using the Granger causality and frequency domain causality test. While the economic growth variable is calculated as the annual growth rate in real GDP; the financial development variable is calculated as in the studies from Aydin (2019) and Kasim et al. (2021) as the ratio of loans given to the private sector by banks to GDP. The annual growth rate was calculated for the variable and used as such in the analysis. In the study, ADF and PP unit root tests were used to determine the degree of stationarity of the variables and it was seen that all the series were stationary in the first differences. In the study, the relationship between economic growth and financial development was investigated with the traditional Granger causality test and the frequency domain causality test which was developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006). According to the results of the study, it shows that there is a one-way causality relationship between economic growth and financial development in the Turkish economy, and while financial development is affected by economic growth, economic growth is not affected by financial development.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomi, Economics
