Trakya Bölgesi’nde İklim Değişikliğinin Buğday Verimine Etkisinin AquaCrop ve WOFOST Modeller ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Abstract

Since climate change will adversely affect the agricultural sector as well as many other sectors, the effects of climate change on agricultural production should be estimated and necessary measures should be taken. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of climate change on wheat yield in the short (2020-2030), medium (2046-2055) and long (2076-2085) term periods in the Thrace Region using AquaCrop and WOFOST models. RegCM3 Regional Climate Model, reference and A2 scenario outputs were used to predict climate change. In the 1970- 1990 period, the measured temperature and precipitation data measured in the research area were compared with the model reference data and changes were estimated in the short, medium and long term periods. Wheat yields obtained from farmer fields in three different locations (Akincilar, Sofular, Çövenli) in Çorlu Pinarbasi sub-basin in 2016-2017 growing period were compared with the model prediction in order to do the calibration and yields were forecasted in the future periods. As a result, in the short term, an average 0.27°C decrease in temperature were forecasted whereas 1,43 °C and 3,05 °C increase were estimated for medium and long terms, respectively when compared to model reference years. In total rainfall, 87 mm (13%) increase, 91 mm (14%) and 78 mm (12%) decreases were simulated for the short, medium and long-terms. AquaCrop Model predicted yield increases up to 50% in Akincilar and Çövenli and yield decreases of 6% - 34% in Sofular whereas WOFOST Model predicted increases of 40% in Akincilar and 12% in Sofular and decrease up to 2 - 7% in Çövenli. © 2020 Namik Kemal University - Agricultural Faculty. All rights reserved.