DOES THE AGING POPULATION BECOME A CONSTRAINT TO THE GROWTH OF TURKISH ECONOMY? NEW EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study deals with the relationship between population aging and economic growth inTurkey during 1970-2018 and includes domestic savings, consumption expenditures, and financialdevelopment in the growth specification as additional variables. The Johansen and ARDL boundstest for cointegration analysis were used. Moreover, DOLS and CCR estimators were used toestimate the long-run coefficients. The VECM causality procedure was employed for causalityanalysis. The findings revealed that the variables are cointegrated. The findings showed thatpopulation aging, and financial development negatively affected economic growth while domesticsavings and consumption expenditures were positively related to economic growth in the long-run.The findings also indicated that bidirectional causality exists between all the independent variablesand economic growth in the long-run. Therefore, this study can provide several policy implicationsto speed economic growth in the Turkish economy.