Analyzing the economic development-driven ecological deficit in the EU-15 countries: new evidence from PSTR approach

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the non-linear effect of economic activities on ecological balance indicators that estimate the balance between economies' pressure on nature and the biologically productive resource areas affected by human activity and the earth's ecological carrying capacity. In measuring this balance, ecological balance sheet indicators are divided into four sub-components: cropland, fishing grounds, forest area, and grazing land. The sample of the study consists of the EU-15 countries over the period 1995-2016. To render the study robust with respect to econometric issues such as potential endogeneity bias, cross-country heterogeneity, non-linearity, and time instability, the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method is adapted. The empirical findings reveal that up to a certain threshold level, economic activities do not affect the ecological balance as nature can compensate for the resulting externalities, but beyond this threshold, waste accumulation and pollution exceed nature's capacity to absorb. Consequently, these findings do not empirically support the EKC hypothesis with an inverted U-shaped curve and suggest that active environmental policies are needed to improve the environment.