Determining the impact of climate change on land suitability for rice paddy cultivation using GIS and RS on FAO maximum limitation approach

Abstract

In the present study, we aimed to understand the current condition of land suitability and how climate change will affect its suitability for rice paddy cultivation in the Edirne Province of Turkey in the future. We used RS and the GIS-supported FAO Maximum Limitation Approach to perform land suitability analysis for the current conditions and 20-year periodic times from 2020 to 2100. The results of the current land suitability assessment indicated that 81.39% of the study area is suitable for rice paddy cultivation. Two climate change models (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) and related scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 showed that the climate conditions in the region will change significantly, therefore, the suitable lands for rice paddy cultivation in the study area will increase. However, the amount of change varies across models and scenarios. Further land suitability for rice paddy cultivation in the study area will be positively affected by temperature and solar radiation changes and negatively affected by changes in humidity and precipitation. Lastly, the agricultural irrigation infrastructure is expected to be unfavorably affected by an increase in extreme climatic events. These findings can guide policymakers and stakeholders to select suitable land for future rice paddy cultivation. To adapt to climate change and reduce its effects, we recommend choosing an agricultural production model that is suitable for climate change scenarios.