The Impact of ICT on Financial Sector Development Under Structural Break: An Empirical Analysis of the Turkish Economy

Abstract

This study is to examine the relationship between information and communication technology (ICT) and financial development in the Turkish economy during the period of 1986-2018. By empirical literature, economic growth, technological innovation, and financial globalization are added to the financial development model as explanatory variables. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Hatemi-J cointegration test with two structural breaks are applied to examine the presence of cointegration between the variables. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified least squares (FMOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques are applied for long-term estimates. The vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach is used for causality analysis. Our empirical results show that under the structural break, ICT, economic growth, technological innovation, and financial globalization are cointegrated with financial development. In the presence of a structural break, ICT and technological innovation negatively affect financial development, while economic growth and financial globalization have a positive impact on financial development. The causality analysis determines that there is a one-way causality relationship running from ICT and economic growth to financial development. In addition, technological innovation and financial globalization lead to long-term financial development. Empirical findings have important policy recommendations for financial development in the Turkish economy.