Multi-criteria land use suitability analysis for the spatial distribution of cattle farming under land use change modeling scenarios in Thrace Region, Turkey

Abstract

Land use suitability for cattle farming is critical in sustainable land use planning and minimizing the environmental problems arising from farms. This study contributes to bridging the gap between classical application formulations that support livestock policies and rapid spatial analysis practices based on GIS-based technologies. In this regard, first, we determined land use suitability in the hot spot area of the Thrace Region/Turkey for cattle farms in 2019 with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) using four main factors related to environmental and topographical conditions, land use and road data. Next, we overlapped land use suitability map for 2019 with CLUE-S land use change model scenarios maps namely Business as Usual (BaU), Economic Development (ED) and Ecosystem Services Protection (ES) to find the land use suitability areas and conversion of these areas for 2050. The results indicated that while 52.38% of the study area was unsuitable in 2019, this ratio will increase to 60.43%, 63.84% and 57.07% due to urbanization in BaU, ED and ES, respectively for 2050. However, highly suitable areas will decrease from 4.82% to 3.86% (BaU), 3.57% (ED) and 4.20% (ES) during 2019 and 2050. The areas close to pastures have high suitability while the areas in the fringe of urban–rural settlements, streams and intercity roads have low suitability. To minimize the negative impacts of urbanization and industrialization on suitable lands and ensure the development of the cattle farming sector in the study area, multi-criteria decision-making rules should be included in the spatial layout planning for the future. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.