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Öğe Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in the transport sector for OECD countries: a dynamic panel threshold approach(Springer Heidelberg, 2024) Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; Ilhan, Ali; Akdeniz, CoskunThis study tests the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the transport sector for 28 OECD countries from 1990 to 2019. As a novelty, the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transport sector is investigated with the estimation of the dynamic panel threshold regression based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator by Seo and Shin (Seo and Shin, J Econom 2:169-186, 2016). This approach enables us to test EKC and capture possible nonlinearities between variables. Along with the analysis of the EKC hypothesis, our study also investigates the effects of road petroleum products consumption, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness on transport CO2 emissions. The threshold regression results, where GDP per capita is employed as the transition variable, support the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from the transportation sector and GDP by rejecting the null hypothesis of no threshold effect. This finding indicates the existence of two different regimes, i.e., the lower and upper regimes, based on the optimum value of the GDP per capita. Economic growth damages the environment in the lower regime, whereas it improves environmental quality in the upper regime. Therefore, the results indicate the presence of an inverted U-shaped relationship and support the EKC hypothesis in the OECD transportation sector. As a result, it is concluded that achieving sustainable economic growth is critical for investing in environmentally friendly technologies required to achieve the goal of reducing transportation-related CO2.Öğe The Effect of Real Wages on Employment after the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry(Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2024) Ilhan, Ali; Akdeniz, CoskunThis paper analyzes the effect of real wages on employment in the Turkish manufacturing industry after the 2008 global financial crisis. The effect was estimated for 24 manufacturing sectors using panel data analysis covering the period from 2009Q1 to 2019Q4. The panel cointegration results demonstrated a significant long-run relationship between real wages and employment, while the panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator results indicated a significant long-run positive effect of real wages on employment. At the sectoral level, the effect was either insignificant or positive except for one sector. These findings indicate that an increase in real wages can raise employment by positively affecting the goods market and national income through the effective demand channel. That is, the manufacturing industry's wage policies for enhancing effective demand can raise employment in Turkiye.Öğe THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL FACTORS ON MONETARY POLICY RESPONSES IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES(Sveuciliste Josipa Jurja Strossmayera & Osijeku, Ekonomski Fak, 2023) Ilhan, AliPurpose: This study investigates the monetary policy responses of emerging market inflation targeters to financial factors both before and after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).Methodology: Taylor rules, augmented with the nominal exchange rate, the exchange market pressure index, and the U.S. federal funds eff ective rate, are analyzed by using the augmented mean group (AMG) panel estimator for 12 emerging market economies (EMEs) that adopted an infl ation targeting regime. The sample is divided into two periods around the GFC: 2002Q1-2007Q4 and 2010Q1-2019Q4. Results: Infl ation signifi cantly and positively impacted interest rate settings during both periods. The panel AMG results indicate that the EMEs' responses to financial variables only had a signifi cant eff ect during the post-crisis period, while the federal funds eff ective rate had the most impact among the financial variables. The country-specifi c results indicate that some central banks also reacted to financial variables before the GFC.Conclusion: Inflation played an important role in policy rate decisions for both periods despite the slightly decreasing weight in interest rate settings after the GFC due to the increasing influence of financial variables. Although financial variables were important in setting interest rates during both periods, the EMEs' post-GFC monetary policies focused more on financial stability. Furthermore, their monetary policies became more compatible with external financial conditions after the GFC.Öğe Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe(Springer, 2024) Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; Helmi, Mohamad Husam; Akdeniz, Coskun; Ilhan, AliThis paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on CDS, stock returns, and economic activity in the US and the five European countries that have been most affected: the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The sample period covers the period from 11 March 2020 to 19 February 2021. In the empirical analysis, first, we estimate benchmark linear VAR models and then, given the evidence of parameter instability, TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility, which are ideally suited to capturing the changing dynamics in both financial markets and the real economy. The linear VAR responses of CDS to the number of COVID-19 cases are positive and statistically significant, whilst those of electricity consumption are insignificant and those of stock returns vary across countries in terms of their sign and significance. The results from the TVP-VAR analysis indicate that the effects of shocks on the system variables was more pronounced during the initial stages of the pandemic and then decreased in the following months. Specifically, there was a positive impact of the number of COVID-19 cases on CDS and a negative one on stock returns and economic activity, the latter two being interlinked.Öğe TIME-VARYING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY(Inst Economic Forecasting, 2023) Ilhan, Ali; Akdeniz, Coskun; Ozdemir, MetinExchange rate fluctuations have decisive effects on inflation dynamics and monetary policy in emerging market economies. This paper analyzes exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Turkey by employing the TVP-VAR model for the period from 2002:01 to 2019:12. Our findings indicate that exchange rate pass-through varied throughout the relevant period. Specifically, the pass-through coefficients decreased considerably after adopting the inflation targeting regime, whereas it accelerated significantly following the exchange rate depreciations, especially after 2013. This upward trend was probably due to structural problems and policy choices. Rising pass-through coefficients may imply the exchange rate pass-through has an impact during inflation targeting. However, it should be noted that inflation targeting has underperformed in Turkey due to policy preferences in the last decade.
