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Öğe An Investigation of the Factors Influencing External Debt in Emerging Market Economies(2023) İlhan, AliExternal financing support plays a vital role in the economic development of emerging market economies (EMEs). However, the ineffective using of external resources can increase the debt burden and exacerbate macroeconomic instability and financial vulnerabilities. After the global financial crisis, growing debt accumulation with the debt-favored environment has raised discussions about whether external financing is a blessing or a curse for macro-financial stability. This paper explores the drivers of external debt in EMEs from 2005Q1 to 2020Q1. To this end, the effects of economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic credit on external debt to gross domestic product are analyzed with panel cointegration and panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator for eight EMEs. The panel cointegration findings show that a long-run relationship exists between the series. The panel AMG findings indicate that economic growth declines external debt. A rise in trade openness, inflation, and domestic credit accumulate foreign debt in the long-run, whereas the impact of the credit is barely statistically significant. Although the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant for the panel, it is statistically significant in the four countries. Country-specific results are largely consistent with the panel findings, but some differences exist across countries.Öğe Analyzing Exchange Market Pressure Dynamics with Markov Regime Switching: The Case of Turkey(Vilnius Univ, 2022) İlhan, Ali; Akdeniz, Coşkun; Özdemir, MetinThis study analyzes the dynamics of exchange market pressure in Turkey by employing the Markov regime switching model for the period from January 2006 to December 2019. Our findings show that there are two regimes in the foreign exchange market, characterized as low- and high-pressure periods. The domination of the high-pressure regime in the sample period indicates that depreciation pressure prevails in the Turkish foreign exchange market. During this regime, the pressure is aggravated by the rising inflation, credit growth, and VIX, and the falling of short-term external debt. Thus, in the presence of capital flows, the preferences of policy authorities regarding price stability and growth determine the course of the pressure. When these policy choices favor credit-driven growth, depreciation pressure in the foreign exchange market is exacerbated through the current account deficit.Öğe Examining the effect of credit on monetary policy with Markov regime switching: Evidence from Turkey(Sciendo, 2022) İlhan, AliThis paper analyses the effect of credit on monetary policy responses for different regimes in Turkey. To do so, the Taylor rule augmented with the credit gap is estimated by using a Markov regime switching model from January 2006 to December 2019. The empirical findings identify two regimes: the low- and high-interest rate regimes. The prevalence of the former indicates policy authorities' growth priorities. Furthermore, differing responses across the regimes reflect that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has an asymmetric policy stance. In the low-interest rate regime, the monetary policy only significantly responds to inflation. In the high-interest rate regime, both inflation and credit have significant positive impacts on interest rate setting. This indicates that credit conditions affected the tightening of the monetary policy stance in Turkey despite the use of macroprudential tools after the global financial crisis.Öğe Exploring Inflation Dynamics with the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model(2024) İlhan, AliUnlike in many advanced and emerging market economies, inflation was already a problem for the Turkish economy before the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 1990s, Türkiye experienced severe inflation, which reached three digits in some months. Although inflation was reduced to single digits in the 2000s through a successful disinflation program under an implicit inflation targeting framework with a flexible exchange rate regime, price stability became a problem again after the global financial crisis. Inflation gradually increased during the 2010s and became out of control after late 2021. This study aims to explore inflation dynamics in Türkiye using the Phillips curve framework for different inflation environments. To this end, the Phillips curve equation, augmented with the exchange rate and oil prices, is estimated using the Markov regime switching model between January 2006 and September 2023. Two regimes are identified in the sample, namely low- and high-inflation regimes. According to the estimation results, the Phillips curve is invalid in both regimes. The unemployment gap is statistically insignificant despite its negative impact on current inflation. The increasing coefficient of backward inflation in the high regime reflects the resurgent indexation behavior, which was dominant before inflation targeting was introduced in Türkiye. The positive impact of oil prices is only statistically significant in the low regime. While an increase in the exchange rate significantly raises inflation in both regimes, the effect is greater in the high-inflation regime. These empirical findings indicate that the primary issues for controlling inflation in Türkiye are inflation inertia and exchange rate stability.Öğe Orta Gelir Tuzağının Türkiye Geneli ve Düzey Alt Bölgeleri İçin Tespiti(2020) İlhan, Ali; Akdeniz, CoşkunBu çalışmanın amacı, orta gelir tuzağının Türkiye’nin geneli ve düzey alt bölgeleri için var olup olmadığınıincelemektedir. Çalışmada ülke geneli için orta gelir tuzağının varlığı Robertson ve Ye’nin (2013) yaklaşımındanhareketle geleneksel ve yapısal kırılmaya izin veren birim kök testleri vasıtasıyla analiz edilirken, düzey alt bölgeleriiçin başta Yakalama Endeksi (Catch-Up Index, CUI) olmak üzere istatistiki sınıflandırmalar kullanılmıştır. 1960-2018döneminin ele alındığı ekonometrik analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye ekonomisinde orta gelir tuzağı mevcut değildir.Bununla birlikte 2004-2017 dönemindeki CUI değerleri, düzey alt bölgelerinin çok büyük bir kısmının düşük gelirgrubunda yer aldıklarını ve orta gelir seviyesine yükselen bazı bölgelerin de son yıllarda konumlarını kaybettiklerinigöstermektedir. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye’nin orta gelir tuzağında yer almamasını yüksek gelir grubuna doğru yakınsamaile açıklamanın güçleştiğini ifade etmek mümkündür.Öğe The Effect of Real Wages on Employment after the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry(2024) İlhan, Ali; Akdeniz, CoşkunThis paper analyzes the effect of real wages on employment in the Turkish manufacturing industry after the 2008 global financial crisis. The effect was estimated for 24 manufacturing sectors using panel data analysis covering the period from 2009Q1 to 2019Q4. The panel cointegration results demonstrated a significant long-run relationship between real wages and employment, while the panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator results indicated a significant long-run positive effect of real wages on employment. At the sectoral level, the effect was either insignificant or positive except for one sector. These findings indicate that an increase in real wages can raise employment by positively affecting the goods market and national income through the effective demand channel. That is, the manufacturing industry’s wage policies for enhancing effective demand can raise employment in Türkiye.Öğe The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market in the Time of COVID-19: the Case of Turkey(2020) İlhan, Ali; Akdeniz, CoşkunAlong with the ongoing efforts to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies through various simulations and forecasts, the severe trauma experienced in financial markets has already manifested itself in market data. Besides the uncertainty created by the pandemic, fluctuations in macroeconomic variables have increased volatility in the developed and emerging stock markets. In this context, this study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on the BIST 100 index before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, the effects of interest rate, exchange rate, CDS premium, VIX, and oil prices on BIST 100 are estimated using the Flexible Least Squares method, which allows for the time-varying coefficient estimation, for the period of 13 September 2019 to 11 September 2020. Empirical findings indicate that interest rate, VIX, and oil prices had significant effects on BIST 100 for certain periods. On the other hand, the exchange rate and CDS premium significantly and negatively affect BIST 100 in the whole sample. Moreover, it is determined that the exchange rate is the macroeconomic variable with the highest impact on BIST 100 based on the quantitative magnitude of the coefficients.Öğe The Role of Macroprudential Policies on Controlling Credit Growth: the Case of Turkey(2021) İlhan, Ali; Özdemir, Metin; Eryiğit, Kadir YasinFollowing the global financial crisis, the quantitative easing policies implemented by developed countries to recover from the crisis led to large capital inflows into developing countries. In the face of macro-financial risks associated with capital flows, policy authorities had to deal with various policy dilemmas between price stability and financial stability. The need to support monetary policy with additional tools to ensure price stability and financial stability simultaneously has led many developing countries to increase the use of the macroprudential policy. Turkey is also among the emerging market economies exposed to the macro-financial risks caused by large capital inflows. Unable to control the risks that accumulated due to the divergence between domestic demand and external demand, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey began to implement a new policy mix from November 2010. To this end, the conventional inflation targeting was modified by incorporating financial stability as a supplementary objective without prejudice to price stability and monetary policy was conducted together with macroprudential policy. This study investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies to control excesses in credit growth under the new policy mix in Turkey. Different from the literature on Turkish experience, an index is constructed to analyze macroprudential policy. By employing cointegration approach with structural breaks of Johansen et al. (2000) the relationship between macroprudential policy index and real total credit growth was estimated covering the period from November 2010 to December 2017. Our empirical findings indicated that macroprudential policy implementations in Turkey have had a limiting effect on credit growth. However, this effect emerged after the tightening of the macroprudential policy stance was increased.Öğe The Role of Macroprudential Policies on Controlling Credit Growth:The Case of Turkey(2021) Özdemir, Metin; Eryiğit, Kadir Yasin; İlhan, AliFollowing the global financial crisis, the quantitative easing policies implemented by developed countries to recover from the crisis led to large capital inflows into developing countries. In the face of macro-financial risks associated with capital flows, policy authorities had to deal with various policy dilemmas between price stability and financial stability. The need to support monetary policy with additional tools to ensure price stability and financial stability simultaneously has led many developing countries to increase the use of the macroprudential policy. Turkey is also among the emerging market economies exposed to the macro-financial risks caused by large capital inflows. Unable to control the risks that accumulated due to the divergence between domestic demand and external demand, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey began to implement a new policy mix from November 2010. To this end, the conventional inflation targeting was modified by incorporating financial stability as a supplementary objective without prejudice to price stability and monetary policy was conducted together with macroprudential policy. This study investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies to control excesses in credit growth under the new policy mix in Turkey. Different from the literature on Turkish experience, an index is constructed to analyze macroprudential policy. By employing cointegration approach with structural breaks of Johansen et al. (2000) the relationship between macroprudential policy index and real total credit growth was estimated covering the period from November 2010 to December 2017. Our empirical findings indicated that macroprudential policy implementations in Turkey have had a limiting effect on credit growth. However, this effect emerged after the tightening of the macroprudential policy stance was increased.Öğe The validity of the real interest differential model for Turkey with Markov regime switching(Peter Lang AG, 2021) Akdeniz, Coşkun; İlhan, AliFactors driving the fluctuations in exchange rates have always been on the agenda of economists. For this purpose, many theories have been developed to find the determinants of exchange rate movements. One of the best known of these theories is Frankel's (1979) Real Interest Differential (RID) Model, which explains exchange rate movements with a monetarist approach. RID model is an approach that tries to explain exchange rate changes among countries by the differences between money supplies, income levels, interest rates and expected inflation rates. Although this monetary model is useful in explaining long-term relationships, it has been considered as inadequate to explain the mutual dynamic interactions between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates that change over time. The nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals has led to the analysis of theoretical models to explain exchange rate movements with nonlinear methods. Accordingly, in this study the validity of Frankel's (1979) RID model is tested for Turkey during the 1990:01-2018:12 period by performing the Markov Regime Switching (MS) method. Findings show that there are two regimes reflecting; specifically the periods of decrease in exchange rates (first regime) and the periods of increase (second regime) throughout the analyzed period. According to the MS estimation results, while all the explanatory variables other than the relative interest rate are statistically significant in the first regime, the effect of relative income on the exchange rate is positive and contrary to expectations. In the second regime, all the explanatory variables except the relative income level are statistically significant and the coefficient signs are consistent with the predictions of the RID model. In this context, it is possible to state that the RID model helps to understand the movements in the USD/TL exchange rate in certain periods. © Peter Lang GmbH Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften Berlin 2020. All rights reserved.Öğe TIME-VARYING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY(Institute for Economic Forecasting, 2023) İlhan, Ali; Akdeniz, Coşkun; Özdemir, MetinExchange rate fluctuations have decisive effects on inflation dynamics and monetary policy in emerging market economies. This paper analyzes exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Turkey by employing the TVP-VAR model for the period from 2002:01 to 2019:12. Our findings indicate that exchange rate pass-through varied throughout the relevant period. Specifically, the pass-through coefficients decreased considerably after adopting the inflation targeting regime, whereas it accelerated significantly following the exchange rate depreciations, especially after 2013. This upward trend was probably due to structural problems and policy choices. Rising pass-through coefficients may imply the exchange rate pass-through has an impact during inflation targeting. However, it should be noted that inflation targeting has underperformed in Turkey due to policy preferences in the last decade. © 2023, Institute for Economic Forecasting. All rights reserved.Öğe Towards an activist monetary policy: Challenges for central banking in the post-crisis era(Peter Lang AG, 2020) Özdemir, Metin; İlhan, AliThe history of monetary thought has been an area of debates within the spectrum of the minimalism-activism in terms of both the objectives and tools of monetary policy. The minimalist approach based on the single objective-single instrument framework before the global financial crisis had a set of objectives and tools suitable for the traditional business cycle. A key lesson from the crisis is that price stability is not enough to achieve financial stability. The crucial role of financial stability to ensure sound macroeconomic performance has led to the enlargement of the aims and tools of monetary policy to respond to the financial cycle. The crisis represents a new phase of transitions between minimalist and activist monetary policy approaches regarding the historical evolution of monetary regimes. Nevertheless, the new monetary regime has not emerged yet. This chapter aims to reveal the new challenges posed by the activist approach for central banking in the post-crisis era. © Peter Lang AG 2020.Öğe Türkiye'de Para Politikası ve Makro İhtiyati Politikanın Karşılıklı Etkileşimi(2019) İlhan, AliMakro ihtiyati politikaların, kriz sonrası dönemde finansal istikrarısağlamaya yönelik politika çerçevelerine dahil olması, para politikasıve makro ihtiyati politika arasındaki koordinasyon problemlerinide beraberinde getirmiştir. Geçiş etkilerinin merkezinde finansalsistemin bulunduğu para politikası ve makro ihtiyati politikanınaktarım mekanizmalarının birbiriyle örtüşmesi ve bir politikanındiğer bir politikanın etki alanını şekillendirebilmesi, politikalararasındaki karşılıklı etkileşimi inceleme gerekliliğini ortayaçıkarmıştır. Küresel finansal kriz sonrası dönemde oluşan küresellikidite bolluğunun getirdiği makro-finansal risklere bağlı olarakgerçekleşen politika açmazları karşısında para politikası ile makroihtiyati politikanın birlikte yürütüldüğü politika çerçevesiniuygulamaya koyan Türkiye gibi ülkelerde karşılıklı etkileşiminderecesi ve koordinasyon ihtiyacı daha fazla olmuştur. Bubağlamda çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de yeni politika bileşimininuygulandığı dönemdeki para politikası ve makro ihtiyati politikauygulamaları arasındaki karşılıklı etkileşimleri incelemektir.Ekonomik döngü ve finansal döngünün durumu dikkate alınarakyapılan değerlendirmeler sonucunda, politikaların Eylül 2016’yakadar aynı yönde hareket ettiği ve nihai hedefler arasında ciddiuyuşmazlıkların yaşanmadığı, bu tarihten itibaren politikalarınters yönde hareket etmeye başladığı ve nihai hedefler arasındakiçatışmaya bağlı olarak koordinasyon ihtiyacının arttığı görülmüştür.Öğe Türkiye'de Yeni Politika Bileşiminin Finansal İstikrar ve Fiyat İstikrarı Üzerindeki Etkilerine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme(2019) İlhan, Ali; Özdemir, MetinKüresel finansal krizin ardından Türkiye gibi pek çok yükselen piyasa ekonomisinin fiyat istikrarı ilefinansal istikrarın bir arada ele alınmasına imkan verecek politika çerçeveleri geliştirdiği görülmüştür.Gerek ortodoks enflasyon hedeflemesinin kriz ile gün yüzüne çıkan sorunları gerekse küresel sermayeakımlarındaki yön değiştirmelere esnek bir biçimde tepki verme gereği karşısında Türkiye CumhuriyetMerkez Bankası Kasım 2010’dan itibaren yeni politika bileşimini uygulamaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada,Türkiye’de yeni politika bileşimi altında uygulanan politikaların değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Yenipolitika bileşimi çerçevesinde gerçekleştirilen para politikası ve makro ihtiyati politika uygulamalarıincelendiğinde politikaların finansal istikrar doğrultusunda belirlenen ara hedeflere ulaşmada başarılı birperformans ortaya koyduğu görülmüştür. Diğer taraftan söz konusu başarının, politika otoritelerinin -tek haneli faiz oranlarının kalıcı hale gelmesi ve büyümenin sürdürülmesi amacıyla- yeni politikabileşiminin içsel risklerini göz ardı etmelerine ve para politikasının normalleşmesi için atılması gerekenadımları geciktirmelerine neden olduğu belirtilmelidir. Bununla birlikte makro ihtiyati politikanın büyümeamacı için de kullanımı, enflasyon oranının yükselmesi ve küresel politika ortamının farklılaşmasısebebiyle büyümenin istikrarsız bir seyir izlemesine bağlı olarak politika açmazları yaratmıştır. Bunedenle yeni politika bileşiminin finansal istikrarın sağlanması hususunda başarılı olduğu görülse desadeleşmenin gecikmesi ve fiyat istikrarının sağlanamaması nedeniyle kendi başarısının kurbanıolduğunu belirtmek gerekmektedir.
