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    Analyzing Exchange Market Pressure Dynamics with Markov Regime Switching: The Case of Turkey
    (Vilnius Univ, 2022) İlhan, Ali; Akdeniz, Coşkun; Özdemir, Metin
    This study analyzes the dynamics of exchange market pressure in Turkey by employing the Markov regime switching model for the period from January 2006 to December 2019. Our findings show that there are two regimes in the foreign exchange market, characterized as low- and high-pressure periods. The domination of the high-pressure regime in the sample period indicates that depreciation pressure prevails in the Turkish foreign exchange market. During this regime, the pressure is aggravated by the rising inflation, credit growth, and VIX, and the falling of short-term external debt. Thus, in the presence of capital flows, the preferences of policy authorities regarding price stability and growth determine the course of the pressure. When these policy choices favor credit-driven growth, depreciation pressure in the foreign exchange market is exacerbated through the current account deficit.
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    The Role of Macroprudential Policies on Controlling Credit Growth: the Case of Turkey
    (2021) İlhan, Ali; Özdemir, Metin; Eryiğit, Kadir Yasin
    Following the global financial crisis, the quantitative easing policies implemented by developed countries to recover from the crisis led to large capital inflows into developing countries. In the face of macro-financial risks associated with capital flows, policy authorities had to deal with various policy dilemmas between price stability and financial stability. The need to support monetary policy with additional tools to ensure price stability and financial stability simultaneously has led many developing countries to increase the use of the macroprudential policy. Turkey is also among the emerging market economies exposed to the macro-financial risks caused by large capital inflows. Unable to control the risks that accumulated due to the divergence between domestic demand and external demand, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey began to implement a new policy mix from November 2010. To this end, the conventional inflation targeting was modified by incorporating financial stability as a supplementary objective without prejudice to price stability and monetary policy was conducted together with macroprudential policy. This study investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies to control excesses in credit growth under the new policy mix in Turkey. Different from the literature on Turkish experience, an index is constructed to analyze macroprudential policy. By employing cointegration approach with structural breaks of Johansen et al. (2000) the relationship between macroprudential policy index and real total credit growth was estimated covering the period from November 2010 to December 2017. Our empirical findings indicated that macroprudential policy implementations in Turkey have had a limiting effect on credit growth. However, this effect emerged after the tightening of the macroprudential policy stance was increased.
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    The Role of Macroprudential Policies on Controlling Credit Growth:The Case of Turkey
    (2021) Özdemir, Metin; Eryiğit, Kadir Yasin; İlhan, Ali
    Following the global financial crisis, the quantitative easing policies implemented by developed countries to recover from the crisis led to large capital inflows into developing countries. In the face of macro-financial risks associated with capital flows, policy authorities had to deal with various policy dilemmas between price stability and financial stability. The need to support monetary policy with additional tools to ensure price stability and financial stability simultaneously has led many developing countries to increase the use of the macroprudential policy. Turkey is also among the emerging market economies exposed to the macro-financial risks caused by large capital inflows. Unable to control the risks that accumulated due to the divergence between domestic demand and external demand, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey began to implement a new policy mix from November 2010. To this end, the conventional inflation targeting was modified by incorporating financial stability as a supplementary objective without prejudice to price stability and monetary policy was conducted together with macroprudential policy. This study investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies to control excesses in credit growth under the new policy mix in Turkey. Different from the literature on Turkish experience, an index is constructed to analyze macroprudential policy. By employing cointegration approach with structural breaks of Johansen et al. (2000) the relationship between macroprudential policy index and real total credit growth was estimated covering the period from November 2010 to December 2017. Our empirical findings indicated that macroprudential policy implementations in Turkey have had a limiting effect on credit growth. However, this effect emerged after the tightening of the macroprudential policy stance was increased.
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    Towards an activist monetary policy: Challenges for central banking in the post-crisis era
    (Peter Lang AG, 2020) Özdemir, Metin; İlhan, Ali
    The history of monetary thought has been an area of debates within the spectrum of the minimalism-activism in terms of both the objectives and tools of monetary policy. The minimalist approach based on the single objective-single instrument framework before the global financial crisis had a set of objectives and tools suitable for the traditional business cycle. A key lesson from the crisis is that price stability is not enough to achieve financial stability. The crucial role of financial stability to ensure sound macroeconomic performance has led to the enlargement of the aims and tools of monetary policy to respond to the financial cycle. The crisis represents a new phase of transitions between minimalist and activist monetary policy approaches regarding the historical evolution of monetary regimes. Nevertheless, the new monetary regime has not emerged yet. This chapter aims to reveal the new challenges posed by the activist approach for central banking in the post-crisis era. © Peter Lang AG 2020.
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    Türkiye'de Yeni Politika Bileşiminin Finansal İstikrar ve Fiyat İstikrarı Üzerindeki Etkilerine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme
    (2019) İlhan, Ali; Özdemir, Metin
    Küresel finansal krizin ardından Türkiye gibi pek çok yükselen piyasa ekonomisinin fiyat istikrarı ilefinansal istikrarın bir arada ele alınmasına imkan verecek politika çerçeveleri geliştirdiği görülmüştür.Gerek ortodoks enflasyon hedeflemesinin kriz ile gün yüzüne çıkan sorunları gerekse küresel sermayeakımlarındaki yön değiştirmelere esnek bir biçimde tepki verme gereği karşısında Türkiye CumhuriyetMerkez Bankası Kasım 2010’dan itibaren yeni politika bileşimini uygulamaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada,Türkiye’de yeni politika bileşimi altında uygulanan politikaların değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Yenipolitika bileşimi çerçevesinde gerçekleştirilen para politikası ve makro ihtiyati politika uygulamalarıincelendiğinde politikaların finansal istikrar doğrultusunda belirlenen ara hedeflere ulaşmada başarılı birperformans ortaya koyduğu görülmüştür. Diğer taraftan söz konusu başarının, politika otoritelerinin -tek haneli faiz oranlarının kalıcı hale gelmesi ve büyümenin sürdürülmesi amacıyla- yeni politikabileşiminin içsel risklerini göz ardı etmelerine ve para politikasının normalleşmesi için atılması gerekenadımları geciktirmelerine neden olduğu belirtilmelidir. Bununla birlikte makro ihtiyati politikanın büyümeamacı için de kullanımı, enflasyon oranının yükselmesi ve küresel politika ortamının farklılaşmasısebebiyle büyümenin istikrarsız bir seyir izlemesine bağlı olarak politika açmazları yaratmıştır. Bunedenle yeni politika bileşiminin finansal istikrarın sağlanması hususunda başarılı olduğu görülse desadeleşmenin gecikmesi ve fiyat istikrarının sağlanamaması nedeniyle kendi başarısının kurbanıolduğunu belirtmek gerekmektedir.