Econometric analysis of the production and price of grapes in Turkey

Abstract

Geographically, Turkey is among the most suitable countries for grape production in the world. Turkey offers a potential of growing around 1250 grape varieties. Traditionally Turkey specialised in producing table grapes and raisins. As an export product, the grape is consumed as a raisin, wine, canned, and grape juice in every month of the year. Turkey ranks as the sixth country in the world in grape production with about four million tons. Turkey is in first place in seedless dried grape export value and 84% of the seedless dried grape is being exported to the European Union. In agriculture, prices are subject to periodic fluctuations. The cyclical supply and demand in grape production should be observed in more than one year. Because of this property in agricultural products, the production quantity-price relationship is analysed using the distributed lag model. As a multiyear agricultural product, the grape is expected to have more lag than the other one-year agricultural products. For this purpose, the Turkish grape production and price relationship is analysed using the Koyck model. © Peter Lang GmbH, Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften, Frankfurt am Main 2016. All rights reserved.